当前股价
USD 160.95
Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. revolutionized the aerospace industry by pioneering reusable orbital launch vehicles. It has since evolved into a diversified tech behemoth, funding its interplanetary ambitions and massive AI supercomputer build-outs through its highly profitable Starlink broadband network.
SpaceX operates across three main segments: Space (launch vehicles like Falcon 9 and Starship, plus spacecraft like Dragon), Connectivity (Starlink satellite internet constellation), and AI (xAI and X Corp, providing AI infrastructure and Grok software).
To make humanity a multiplanetary species by building a self-sustaining city on Mars, while accelerating the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) through its xAI division.
Bet the remaining capital on a fourth launch attempt.
Saved the company from bankruptcy and secured a $1.6B NASA Commercial Resupply Services contract.
Invested heavily in retropropulsion and grid fin technology for booster recovery.
Fundamentally altered launch economics, giving SpaceX an insurmountable cost advantage over legacy aerospace primes.
Pivoted from a pure-play launch provider to a vertically integrated global telecommunications operator.
Created a massive recurring revenue engine; Connectivity now accounts for over 60% of total revenue and is the primary profit driver.
Committed billions to a fully reusable, super-heavy lift architecture utilizing methalox engines.
Validated the platform necessary for scaling Starlink V2 and securing the NASA Artemis HLS contract.
Acquired xAI and went public to fund the staggering CapEx required for artificial general intelligence.
Pushed the company into a $4.9B net loss in 2025 due to GPU build-outs, shifting the investment narrative from pure space exploration to a high-risk Space-AI hybrid.
Early Public Market Transition & Deep CapEx Cycle
基于历史发展轨迹的推导分析
Subsidize the massive capital requirements of Starship R&D and xAI supercomputer infrastructure using the robust free cash flow generated by the Starlink broadband monopoly.
Highly aggressive and inherently risky. Merging an AI company into an aerospace company strains capital resources. While Starlink's 63% EBITDA margin is phenomenal, the $6.35B operating loss from the AI segment in 2025 shows that xAI is a heavy financial anchor that demands flawless execution.
Priced for absolute perfection. The market expects SpaceX to maintain its launch monopoly, double Starlink revenue rapidly, and emerge as a top-3 AI foundation model provider simultaneously.
At a near-$2 trillion valuation (roughly 107x 2025 revenue), the market cap already prices in a decade of flawless 40-50% annualized growth. It reflects future dominance rather than current fundamentals.
The S-1 explicitly frames SpaceX as an AI and Connectivity platform first, and a launch provider second. The strategy is to leverage the impenetrable launch moat to deploy Starlink, use Starlink cash to buy GPUs, and use GPUs to win the AGI race via xAI.
If xAI cannot monetize its massive compute infrastructure rapidly, the AI segment will continue to drag down Starlink's massive profits. To justify the ~$2T valuation, SpaceX must grow revenue by ~50% annually for the next decade, a nearly impossible feat for a hardware-heavy company.
《One Up On Wall Street》选股视角
The growth is spectacular (33% top line), but the fundamentals do not support the price. A company losing $4.9B should not trade at 107x sales. The underlying Starlink business is phenomenal, but it's burdened by an AI science project burning billions. The 30% retail allocation at IPO suggests institutional exhaustion at this price tag.
"Peter Lynch famously avoided 'hot stocks in hot industries'. SpaceX is the hottest stock in the history of the hottest industry (AI/Space). The valuation requires 600x growth over a decade, leaving absolutely zero margin of safety."
Do not buy the IPO pop. Wait for a massive market correction or a quarter where xAI CapEx spooks the market, bringing the P/S multiple down to a rational 15-20x.
If currently holding pre-IPO shares, sell into the retail euphoria immediately.
Extremely capital intensive. The cost base has shifted from rocket manufacturing to data center infrastructure and R&D for AI.
Massive GPU purchases and power requirements for xAI.
Iterative hardware-rich testing and vehicle destruction at Starbase.
Manufacturing and launching thousands of V2 satellites.
Connectivity has overtaken Space as the primary driver, providing stable, recurring subscription revenue.
Consumer broadband and enterprise/government connectivity.
Commercial and government rocket launches.
Advertising, Grok subscriptions, and AI compute solutions.
Systemic Consistency & Business Flywheel Analysis
The SpaceX Flywheel: Reusable Falcon rockets drastically lower the cost of launching Starlink satellites -> A massive, cheap Starlink constellation secures millions of paying subscribers -> Subscriber cash flow funds Starship R&D and xAI compute -> Starship lowers launch costs further, allowing for larger AI data centers in orbit or cheaper terrestrial expansion.
Model Weaknesses & Vulnerabilities Analysis
The flywheel fractures at xAI. xAI does not naturally feed back into the aerospace loop in the short term. It acts as a massive financial drain (-$6.35B operating loss), threatening the solvency of the core space/connectivity business if AI monetization falters.
Apex vertically integrated manufacturer. SpaceX builds its engines, avionics, and satellites entirely in-house, bypassing the traditional aerospace supply chain.
Extreme in Launch and Connectivity. With ULA and Arianespace severely delayed, SpaceX dictates market pricing for orbital access. Starlink has strong pricing power in rural and maritime sectors.
Weak against semiconductor foundries and GPU designers (e.g., Nvidia) for its xAI segment, where it is a price-taker.
Very strong. Commercial satellite operators and government defense agencies have almost no viable alternatives to Falcon 9/Heavy.
竞争力威胁指数 (1-5)
While low for aerospace parts due to vertical integration, it is exceptionally high for AI hardware. Nvidia and TSMC hold immense leverage over the xAI division's supply of advanced GPUs.
Launch customers and rural Starlink users have negligible alternatives. Government agencies (NASA/DoD) have slightly more power but are practically locked in by SpaceX's reliability and cost.
The capital barrier to entry for both reusable orbital launch and LEO satellite constellations is in the tens of billions. Threat is low in space, but higher in AI software.
Low in orbital launch (Blue Origin and Rocket Lab are far behind in scale). However, rivalry is violently intense in the AI segment against deep-pocketed hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google.
Fiber-optic networks substitute Starlink in urban areas. In the launch market, there is no substitute for chemical rockets currently.
SpaceX's aerospace and connectivity moats are nearly impenetrable, scoring low threat levels. However, the forced inclusion of the xAI segment introduces severe supplier power and intense rivalry risks that the core business previously avoided.
SpaceX employs a strict dual-class share structure (Class A with 1 vote, Class B with 10 votes). This guarantees founder control regardless of public float dilution.
| 股东名称 | 持股比例 |
|---|---|
| Elon Musk (Founder & CEO) | 82.4% (Voting Power) |
| Founders Fund / DFJ / Early VCs | ~8.0% (Economic) |
| Retail Investors (IPO Allocation) | 30.0% (Of the IPO float) |
Late-stage expansion for the tech sector, specifically driven by the AI CapEx supercycle.
“The global economy in mid-2026 is defined by a massive infrastructure build-out for AI compute, alon...”
Founder of Tesla, xAI, Neuralink. Architect of the reusable rocket revolution.
Former Microcosm executive. The operational backbone of SpaceX, responsible for scaling Starlink and managing day-to-day launch operations.
Former CFO of Mindspeed Technologies. Manages the complex multi-segment cash flows.
Management is generationally visionary and operationally elite (led by Shotwell). However, corporate governance is poor. The dual-class structure and inter-company transactions (acquiring xAI) effectively render public shareholders powerless against Musk's unilateral capital allocation decisions.
Ultra-aggressive. Management willingly cannibalizes short-term profitability to fund existential, decade-long bets (Starship, xAI). The allocation toward AI in 2025/2026 is highly controversial among aerospace purists.
Musk's wealth is entirely tied to the equity value of his companies. However, his dual-role as CEO of multiple companies (Tesla, Neuralink) and the use of SpaceX cash to fund xAI raises severe corporate governance and fiduciary duty questions.
Deep, structural cost advantage in launch services due to 15 years of reusability R&D. First-mover monopoly in global LEO broadband with high switching costs.
SpaceX possesses the strongest physical moat of any company on Earth. However, its strategy to merge AI and Space creates an unprecedented capital burden. It is a high-wire act of cross-subsidization that leaves zero room for error.
支撑/压力位 • 均线 • 形态分析
Hyper-Bullish IPO Momentum. Opened at $150, spiked to $176.52, and settled at $160.95. The chart shows massive initial buying pressure driven by retail FOMO, establishing a baseline support at $150.
机构持仓 • 成交量分布
Highly concentrated at the top. The 30% retail float is being actively traded, resulting in massive volume and volatility. Institutional holders (early VCs) are likely locked up, creating an artificial scarcity squeeze.
多空分歧度 • 预期一致性 • 买卖建议
The market consensus is entirely divergent from fundamental reality. Traders are treating SPCX as a meme-stock hybrid of Nvidia and Tesla, ignoring the $4.9B net loss. Short-term recommendation: Trade the momentum cautiously. Long-term recommendation: Sell. The 100x+ P/S multiple is structurally unsustainable.
机构一致评级
基于 23 位分析师的评级
价格指标排序 (低到高) (USD)
Wall Street is deeply conflicted. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs defend the valuation based on the $28T AI TAM, while traditional value analysts flag the 100x Price-to-Sales multiple as mathematically impossible to sustain.
当前股价
内在价值 (Intrinsic)
安全边际
-253.7%
Even assuming a generous 40% annualized FCF growth rate for the next decade, the intrinsic value maxes out around $600B. The current $2T price tag prices in aggressive AGI success that DCF models cannot responsibly quantify.
市盈率 (PE RATIO)
Meaningless due to negative earnings.
市净率 (PB RATIO)
Astronomical. The equity base was wiped out by 2025 losses, making book value practically non-existent relative to market cap.
PEG 比率
Not applicable.
EV/EBITDA
Massively overvalued. Trades at over 300x its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $6.58B.
股息率 (DIVIDEND YIELD)
Payout: 0%。N/A
N/A
*注：以上内容为 AI 模仿知名投资人风格生成的虚拟点评，不代表本人实际观点，仅供参考。
寻找弱点、拷问逻辑，避免盲目的乐观
ROE is deeply negative (-189.8% in 2025) and entirely incomparable to traditional defense primes like Lockheed Martin or Airbus, which have stable, positive ROEs. SpaceX functions financially like an early-stage VC bet, despite generating $18.7B in revenue.
The $1.75T to $2.0T valuation defies traditional aerospace metrics. The market is pricing SPCX not as a rocket company, but as a monopolistic AI and global telecommunications platform. The 107x Price-to-Sales multiple reflects retail euphoria (30% IPO allocation) and belief in the $28.5T total TAM narrative pitched in the S-1.
Consolidated operating margin swung from +5.6% in 2024 to -13.9% in 2025. This masks the extreme divergence between segments: Starlink operates at massive margins, Space operates at a mild loss (due to Starship R&D), and AI operates at a catastrophic -200% margin relative to its specific revenue.
The negative ROE is a direct result of management's active decision to obliterate 2025 earnings via massive xAI capital expenditures. The underlying 'core' ROE of the Starlink segment alone would be highly positive and of excellent quality, driven by high-margin subscription cash flows.
Fixed Asset Turnover dropped in 2025 because the denominator (Assets) grew much faster than Revenue due to the sudden influx of AI GPUs that have not yet generated proportional software revenue. Launch efficiency, however, is at an all-time high with Falcon 9 achieving a 95% reuse rate.
The dual-class structure heavily dilutes the voting power of public shareholders. The IPO float represents a tiny fraction of the company, and the $75B raise is highly dilutive economically, though absolutely necessary to fund the stated AGI and Mars ambitions.
Operating Cash Flow is robust at $6.8B, proving the underlying business model works. However, Investing Cash Outflows of $19.6B demonstrate the astronomical cost of the Starship and xAI programs. SpaceX is a cash incinerator by design, requiring constant Financing Cash Flows (VC rounds, now IPO proceeds) to survive the CapEx cycle.
SpaceX's asset base has ballooned dramatically, growing from $57B to over $102B in just 15 months by Q1 2026. This is primarily driven by massive additions to Net PP&E ($53.9B), largely consisting of server/networking hardware for xAI ($22.7B) and Starlink satellite constellations. The structure is highly illiquid and incredibly capital intensive.
Leverage is rising aggressively. The acquisition of xAI and the push for AGI has forced SpaceX to take on more debt and lease obligations for data centers. The debt-to-equity ratio spiked severely in 2025 as net losses eroded book equity down to $2.6B before the 2026 IPO recapitalized the balance sheet.
SpaceX's financial profile is completely detached from legacy aerospace. Its 46% R&D burden and 107x P/S ratio make it look more like an early-stage, hyper-growth AI startup than an industrial manufacturer. It trades at a 3x premium to even Nvidia, highlighting the extreme speculative premium embedded in the stock.