当前股价
USD 50.84
Founded by Eric Lefkofsky, Tempus AI sits at the intersection of healthcare and technology. The company operates two main segments: Diagnostics (providing sequencing and MRD testing for oncology and hereditary diseases) and Data & Applications (licensing its 500+ petabyte clinical library to pharmaceutical companies).
Tempus AI provides AI-driven precision medicine solutions, combining genomic sequencing and diagnostic testing with a vast, multimodal clinical and molecular database used by biopharma companies for drug discovery and clinical trial matching.
To harness the power of artificial intelligence to advance precision medicine, ensuring that every patient benefits from the treatment of others who came before them.
Focus intensely on oncology to digitize clinical records and pair them with genomic sequencing data.
Established the initial multimodal database that serves as the company's core economic moat today.
Secured multi-year, multi-million dollar data licensing agreements with major players like AstraZeneca and GSK.
Validated the 'Data and Applications' business model, proving that biopharma was willing to pay a premium for high-quality, linked clinical and molecular data.
Went public on the NASDAQ to raise capital for massive AI infrastructure investments.
Secured the necessary capital to scale operations, purchasing massive clusters of H200 and GB200 GPUs to build oncology foundation models.
Aggressively expanded into hereditary testing while doubling down on foundation model generation.
Pushed Q4 2025 revenue to $367.2M (up 83% YoY) and expanded the diagnostic footprint beyond standard oncology.
Pushed Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) testing volumes despite reimbursement lags.
Achieved a 500% YoY increase in MRD volumes, driving overall Q1 diagnostic revenue to $261.1M, solidifying long-term clinical utility at the cost of short-term cash burn.
Rapid Growth & Capital Expenditure Phase
基于历史发展轨迹的推导分析
Building an impregnable 'App Store' for precision medicine by massively scaling the diagnostic footprint to feed the data flywheel, while simultaneously investing heavily in compute (H200s) to build predictive foundation models.
The strategy is working brilliantly on the top line (36.1% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2026). However, it is high-risk due to the immense capital expenditure required to train foundation models and the negative cash flow profile of scaling un-reimbursed diagnostic tests.
The market expects Tempus to maintain a 20-30% top-line growth rate and eventually translate its massive Total Contract Value (TCV >$1.1B) into high-margin SaaS-like cash flows once the foundational R&D phase matures.
At a ~$9B market cap (representing ~6x forward sales), the market is pricing in the success of the data licensing business but heavily discounting the current unprofitability and hardware capital expenditure risks.
Management is explicitly prioritizing data aggregation scale and model training over immediate GAAP profitability. They are pushing test volume to secure pharmaceutical licensing deals.
Management raised 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $1.59B–$1.60B (~25% growth) and reaffirmed roughly $65M in Adjusted EBITDA, signaling a crossing into operational self-sufficiency.
《One Up On Wall Street》选股视角
TEM is printing explosive top-line growth (36%) and expanding gross margins (63.8%), but GAAP net losses are widening (-$125M in Q1). The story hinges entirely on the Data & Apps segment acting as a high-margin cash cow in the future.
"The 'Razor and Blade' model is working. They lose money or break even sequencing DNA, but make pure profit licensing the resulting database. $1.1B in TCV provides revenue visibility."
Accumulate in tranches. The cash buffer is strong, but macro volatility could provide better entry points if tech valuations compress.
Exit if Data & Applications revenue growth falls below 20% or if management reverses course and announces an emergency dilutive secondary offering.
Heavily skewed toward massive fixed costs for R&D, sequencing hardware, and AI compute, with moderate variable costs for lab reagents.
Massive spend on GPU clusters and bioinformatics talent to build foundation models.
Reagents, lab supplies, and sequencer depreciation.
Two distinct engines: highly variable, lower-margin diagnostics and highly recurring, extreme-margin data licensing.
Revenue from sequencing tests billed to insurance or patients.
High-margin revenue from licensing data and AI models to biopharma.
Systemic Consistency & Business Flywheel Analysis
The Tempus Flywheel: 1) Deploy free/cheap AI tools and tests to doctors. 2) Secure clinical and genomic data. 3) Aggregate into the Tempus Library. 4) License to biopharma at huge margins. 5) Use profits to build better tools for doctors. The loop is intact and accelerating.
Model Weaknesses & Vulnerabilities Analysis
The loop breaks if insurance completely refuses to reimburse the diagnostic testing over the long term, making data acquisition unsustainably expensive.
Midstream Aggregator and Analyzer. Tempus sits between clinical care (hospitals/patients providing data/samples) and upstream research (biopharma consuming data).
Moderate in Diagnostics (subject to Medicare/Insurance reimbursement rates). High in Data & Applications (due to the proprietary, non-commoditized nature of longitudinal clinical data).
Low to Moderate. Heavily reliant on Illumina/PacBio for sequencing machines and Nvidia for AI computing hardware.
Moderate to High. Tempus has strong leverage with biopharma companies because of the sheer scale of its 500PB dataset.
竞争力威胁指数 (1-5)
Tempus is highly dependent on hardware monopolies like Illumina for sequencers and Nvidia for high-performance compute chips (H200s).
Biopharma clients are wealthy but have internal data teams and can partner with competitors like Flatiron Health or Caris. However, Tempus's scale is a strong counter-leverage.
Regulatory hurdles (CLIA, FDA), the sheer cost of sequencers, and the impossible catch-up required to replicate a 500-petabyte clinical database provide a wide moat.
Fierce competition with Foundation Medicine, Caris Life Sciences in solid tumor profiling, and Natera/Guardant in the rapidly expanding MRD space.
Standard traditional biopsies and standard-of-care generic prescribing are the primary substitutes, but standard-of-care is actively shifting toward precision genomics.
Tempus operates with a strong protective moat built on data gravity and regulatory hurdles, but it faces intense competitive rivalry and supplier dependencies that pressure its near-term profitability.
Dual-class share structure giving significant voting control to the founder, Eric Lefkofsky. Institutional ownership has grown following the 2024 IPO.
| 股东名称 | 持股比例 |
|---|---|
| Eric Lefkofsky (Founder/CEO) | 25.0%+ |
| Baillie Gifford | 8.5% |
| T. Rowe Price | 6.2% |
Late-cycle tightening shifting toward stabilization.
“The global economy is navigating a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, which compresses mul...”
Serial entrepreneur (Groupon, Echo Global Logistics), highly visionary, deep focus on utilizing big data.
Extensive experience in corporate finance and steering high-growth healthcare technology firms to the public markets.
Management is execution-oriented and highly visionary. The primary governance risk is the dual-class voting structure which limits activist intervention.
Aggressive reinvestment into R&D and capital expenditures. Acquiring Ambry Genetics (2025) expanded hereditary testing. Purchasing massive compute clusters (H200s) shows a willingness to sacrifice short-term cash flow for terminal AI dominance.
High. The founder retains massive equity and voting power, closely aligning management with long-term enterprise value creation rather than short-term quarterly appeasement.
Data Scale. It is nearly impossible for a new entrant to retroactively gather, sequence, and structure 500+ petabytes of matched clinical and genomic records.
Tempus is playing a winner-take-all game to become the foundational operating system of precision medicine, utilizing immense capital to out-build competitors in data scale and AI compute.
支撑/压力位 • 均线 • 形态分析
Consolidating. The stock has experienced volatility post-earnings, dropping slightly due to bottom-line GAAP miss despite the top-line beat. Support is forming around the low $40s, with heavy resistance near $60.
机构持仓 • 成交量分布
Institutional ownership is locking up float. The retail-to-institutional ratio is leaning institutional as major funds (Baillie Gifford) accumulate on thesis-driven growth.
多空分歧度 • 预期一致性 • 买卖建议
Divergent. Bulls focus on 36% revenue growth and Data TCV; Bears focus on the Q1 -$0.70 EPS loss and AI capex drain. Advice: Buy cautiously into weakness, respecting the $45 support level.
机构一致评级
基于 12 位分析师的评级
价格指标排序 (低到高) (USD)
Wall Street generally acknowledges the massive AI and data moat Tempus has built, setting optimistic price targets based on forward revenue. However, cautious analysts highlight the persistent path to unprofitability.
当前股价
内在价值 (Intrinsic)
安全边际
+7.5%
A standard FCF DCF is difficult due to negative current cash flows. Relying on an accelerated 10-year forward cash flow model yields a value near current prices, assuming 25% revenue growth persisting and margins expanding.
市盈率 (PE RATIO)
N/A - Company operates at a GAAP net loss.
市净率 (PB RATIO)
Elevated, reflecting the intangible value of the proprietary database.
PEG 比率
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A - EBITDA is currently negative, though guiding for $65M positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026.
股息率 (DIVIDEND YIELD)
Payout: 0%。N/A
N/A
Because GAAP earnings and Free Cash Flow are deeply negative due to aggressive R&D scaling, the most accurate valuation metric for Tempus AI is a forward Price-to-Sales multiple, modeling its future SaaS-like software margin capabilities against its current revenue growth.
Total revenue over the last 12 months.
Expected year-over-year revenue growth rate (1 + %).
Assigned price-to-sales multiple based on SaaS/Data peers.
Total diluted shares outstanding.
*注：以上内容为 AI 模仿知名投资人风格生成的虚拟点评，不代表本人实际观点，仅供参考。
寻找弱点、拷问逻辑，避免盲目的乐观
ROE is consistently negative (-13.5% in 2025) because the company operates in a deliberate loss-making expansion phase. It lags mature peers but aligns with high-growth SaaS and biotech infrastructure peers.
The $9B valuation is entirely driven by the Total Contract Value ($1.1B+) in the Data segment and the forward expectations of AI algorithm adoption. The market ignores GAAP unprofitability, focusing on a ~6x-7x forward Price/Sales multiple.
Non-GAAP loss from operations improved from $25.8M in Q1 2025 to $11.6M in Q1 2026. Gross margins expanded sharply to 63.8% due to the software-like margins of the Data & Applications segment.
ROE is not a valid metric for TEM at this stage. Management is deliberately burning equity to secure a first-mover, winner-take-all data advantage in oncology AI.
Gross margin improvements indicate exceptional operational scaling. The Data segment grew 40.5% YoY without requiring a proportional increase in variable costs, proving the 'Data Flywheel' logic.
Dilution has been a factor (shares grew from ~119M in 2023 to ~176M currently) due to the IPO and stock-based compensation. However, management expects to halt major dilutive financing moving forward.
Q1 2026 cash flow from operations dropped by ~$70M due to typical seasonal bonus payouts and payables timing. However, the underlying cash burn is projected to moderate, with adjusted EBITDA targeted at positive $65M for the full year 2026.
The asset structure is heavy on cash ($643.8M in Q1 2026) due to capital raises, providing a strong buffer. Fixed assets and capitalized hardware for AI models represent an accelerating portion of non-current assets.
Leverage remains low and stable. Management explicitly stated in Q1 2026 that 'We do not need more cash' and plan no alternative financings, signaling confidence in their current runway.
Tempus leads the industry average in gross margins due to its dual-segment model (Data & Apps pulls the average up). However, its net margin is worse than peers because of the disproportionately heavy capex in Nvidia AI clusters compared to pure diagnostic peers.